Three disability bodies, three reads on NDIS cuts

The 2026-27 Federal Budget cut $37.8 billion from projected NDIS growth over four years. Three of Australia’s most prominent disability bodies took three public positions in the hours and days that followed.

People with Disability Australia called the package “heartless.” Autism Association Australia was “cautiously optimistic.” MS Australia released a national survey showing 61% of people with multiple sclerosis say the scheme does not understand their condition.

Each release argues a different case. All three converge on what needs to happen next.

What the Budget did

The Government’s “Securing the NDIS for Future Generations” package is the largest single line item in its $63.8 billion savings target. The $37.8 billion is the reduction in projected NDIS growth between 2026-27 and 2029-30, not a cut to current spending. The scheme keeps growing, just more slowly.

The headline measures:

• a 30% reduction to social and community participation supports, beginning October 2026
• New Framework Planning replaces the current core/capital/capacity building system from 1 April 2027
• new functional capacity assessments replace diagnosis-based eligibility from 1 January 2028
• participant numbers projected to fall from around 770,000 today to 600,000 by 2030

The Bill is more than 100 pages. The details are still emerging.

What PWDA said

PWDA Acting CEO Megan Spindler-Smith led with the maths. People with disability are 25% of the population. The Budget asks them to deliver 60% of the savings.

“Budgets are about choices,” she said. “This Budget chooses to directly cut the supports people with disability rely on to get out of bed, go to work, care for their children and participate in community life.”

PWDA’s central charge is sequencing. The Government has cut first and promised replacement supports later. There is no plan in place for people losing NDIS access. Foundational Supports are underfunded. States and territories are already saying they cannot pick up the slack.

“You cannot responsibly remove support first and work out the alternative later. That is how people fall through gaps, end up and stay in crisis and lose trust in the system entirely,” Mx Spindler-Smith said.

PWDA President Jeramy Hope flagged a second concern: people with disability outside the NDIS got almost nothing in the Budget. Income support remains “well below what people need to live with dignity.”

PWDA’s petition, Reasonable. Necessary. Ordinary., now has more than 14,000 signatures.

What Autism Association Australia said

CEO Nicole Rogerson opened with a different line: “Autism Association Australia is cautiously optimistic that changes confirmed to the NDIS budget tonight will be the thing that makes it sustainable into the future.”

The optimism is conditional. Read past the first paragraph and the warnings stack up.

On the risk of underdelivery: “Governments must ensure that short-term savings do not create far greater long-term costs for individuals, families, and the broader community.”

On state readiness: “Schools, health services, and community providers are under enormous pressure, and if the Federal Government reduces its role before state systems are properly funded and prepared, a generation of children risk falling through the cracks.”

On early intervention: “Early intervention is not simply an expense, but a long-term investment that can significantly reduce support needed later in life, improving education, employment, and independence outcomes.”

AAA also missed out on its pre-budget ask: $1.5 million a year over three years to run a National Parent Support During Reform program.

What MS Australia said

MS Australia chose a different lane. It waited 10 days after the Budget, then released a national survey of 939 people.

The result: 61% say the NDIS does not understand multiple sclerosis. 47% saw physiotherapy changes at their last plan review. 27% had mental health supports cut.

CEO Rohan Greenland framed it as a quality problem, not a quantum problem.

“Reform must strengthen confidence that people are being assessed accurately and fairly, and must not make it harder for people with complex and progressive conditions like MS to access the support they need.”

The survey is now being used to push for MS-specific assessor training and clearer recognition of fluctuating symptoms in the new assessment model.

Where the three positions converge

Strip out the framing and the three bodies agree on more than the headlines suggest.

All three accept the NDIS needs reform. AAA: “the NDIS requires reform.” PWDA: “we absolutely know that the NDIS needs to work well and be sustainable into the future.” MS Australia: the scheme must consistently deliver “what people need.”

All three say implementation is the question. AAA: “done properly.” PWDA: “you cannot responsibly remove support first.” MS Australia: “support should not depend on who you speak to.”

All three flag the same gaps. Foundational Supports are not yet built. States are not ready. Workforce training is missing. The assessment process is inconsistent.

The disagreement is about tone, sequencing, and trust. PWDA reads the package as harm waiting to happen and is fighting it now. AAA reads it as a risk worth taking if the detail is right. MS Australia is using survey data to push for specific, condition-aware changes during the Bill’s passage.

What to watch next

The fight that matters is in the detail of the Bill and in the agreements being signed between the Commonwealth and the states. Three things to track:

1. Foundational Supports funding. PWDA says the announced investment “falls well short” of what is needed for people losing NDIS access. AAA says state systems are not ready. The next Federal-state agreements will tell.
2. Independent appeal rights. PWDA flagged this as a top concern. The Bill makes changes to how participants can challenge decisions.
3. The new functional capacity assessment tool. MS Australia’s survey shows people with fluctuating conditions are already poorly assessed under the current model. The same tool, scaled from 2028, will either fix that or widen the gap.

The disability sector is not as split as the headlines suggest. The three bodies are running different plays at the same fight. Whether they succeed will be settled in committee rooms over the next 12 months, not in the press releases of 12 May.