Rebalancing the NDIS: Is it time for a support system beyond the scheme?

When the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) was introduced just over a decade ago, it promised something revolutionary: personalised, funded support for Australians with permanent and significant disability. And for many, it delivered. But today, the scheme is under pressure like never before — financially, politically, and emotionally.

A new report by the Grattan Institute, titled Saving the NDIS, suggests it’s time for a course correction. Not by shrinking the scheme, but by rebalancing it — and building something stronger around it.

The report doesn’t shy away from hard truths: at its current pace, the NDIS is projected to cost more than $58 billion by 2029. That’s nearly double what it cost just five years ago. Yet only 13% of Australians with disability are on the scheme. The rest? Many rely on patchy, underfunded mainstream services — or nothing at all.

A scheme under strain

The real issue, according to Grattan, isn’t that we’re spending too much — it’s that we’re not spending wisely enough.

NDIS plans, the report argues, are often overused for people with lower support needs because no real alternatives exist. Children with mild developmental delay or autism, for example, are being funnelled into the NDIS, even when their needs might be better met by inclusive school programs, allied health, or community-based early intervention.

This isn’t just inefficient — it risks undermining the scheme’s purpose: to support those with the highest needs in a sustainable, fair and personalised way.

Foundations outside the NDIS

So what’s the solution?

Grattan recommends a major shift in how we think about disability support. Their plan involves:

• Tighter eligibility: Clarify who the NDIS is really for — and ensure decisions are more consistent and fair.
• Foundational supports: Create new, state-funded services for people with lower-level or shorter-term needs, such as mild autism or early developmental delays.
  
• A refreshed agreement: Build a new National Disability Agreement so federal and state governments know who’s responsible for what.
  

In theory, this would reduce pressure on the NDIS while expanding access to support for people who currently get very little. The report estimates these changes could save $34 billion over 10 years — not by taking support away, but by delivering it differently.

The catch: trust and timing

Of course, these changes come with significant risks — and people with disability have seen enough broken promises to be wary.

Advocacy groups, especially those representing children and families, are sounding alarms. If the NDIS tightens eligibility before state-based foundational supports are fully operational, thousands could be left without any assistance at all. And we’ve seen what happens when people fall through the cracks.

What this means for you

If you’re on the NDIS or supporting someone who is, this report doesn’t mean immediate changes — but it does signal where the conversation is heading.

Suppose you work in disability services, especially with children or people with psychosocial disability. In that case, you may soon be asked to navigate two systems: one inside the NDIS, and one outside it.

And if you’ve been missing out on support because you don’t meet the NDIS’s strict criteria? This report may offer a glimmer of hope — but only if foundational supports are built fairly, quickly, and with people with disability at the centre of the design.

The bottom line

The NDIS can’t — and shouldn’t — do everything. That doesn’t mean we need to spend less on disability. It means we need to spend smarter, build stronger systems outside the NDIS, and make sure every person with disability has access to support, whether they qualify for a plan or not.

If done well, Grattan’s vision could rebalance the system and restore confidence in the NDIS. But if the rollout is rushed, or foundational supports fall short, the very people the NDIS was created to serve could pay the price.